As U.S. commentators debate whether Turkey will join U.S. President Barack Obama`s coalition against the Islamic State, some Turkish experts expect more serious foreign policy challenges, such as what will happen in 2023, when the Lausanne Treaty expires and Turkey`s modern borders become obsolete. According to secret articles signed nearly a century ago by Turkish and British diplomats in a Swiss maritime zone, British troops will reocquire fortresses on the Bosphorus and the Greek Orthodox Patriarch will revive a Byzantine mini-state within the walls of the city of Istanbul. On the positive side for Turkey, the country will finally be allowed to draw on its huge oil reserves, which were not limited before, and perhaps to reclaim Western Thrace. Mohamed Abdel-Kader Khalil, an Egyptian expert on Turkish affairs, said: „Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East is linked to the use of Turkish military capabilities in the region. This is reflected in Turkish military concentrations on the borders of Iraq and Syria and in its participation in the Red Sea through an agreement on the island of Sawken, Sudan, as well as by the Turkish military intervention in the northern Syrian town of Afrin. It is possible here to strike a balance between the Treaties of Lausanne II and the „Nanjing Treaty“ that China ceded to Britain after the First Opium War, by signing the Tchenba Agreement, which was to end the first Anglo-Chinese conflict. The expiry of the Treaty of Lausanne by 2023 has sparked a new debate among global geopolitical and geostrategic thinkers about how Turkey would respond to this tectonic development. Will Turkey revive the Ottoman Empire? Will the geopolitical and geoeconomic map of the region change? Will Turkey win again by deploying its hard power and thus creating regional domination? Demands that correspond to these and others are now an integral part of any transnational discourse.
And how do the current great powers cope with Turkish demands? We will see wars before 2023, and who will lead this change The Turkish lira is the second worst currency in the world this month with a decline of more than 4% against the dollar, bringing its losses for the year to more than 18%, Goldman Sachs reported. The U.S. dollar now buys 7.30 Turkish pounds, which is significantly higher than the so-called psychological point of 1 dollar per 7.00 lira. Turkey`s official unemployment rate for the month of May, which has just been published, is 12.9%, which means that the August rate is most likely higher, especially due to the massive devaluation of the Turkish lira. However, the famous Turkish economist Mahfi Egilmez says that an unemployment rate of 24.6% is „as close as possible to reality“. Unemployment was 9.1% in 2011 and the target for 2023, 100 years after the signing of the Treaty of Lausanne, is 5%, which will certainly not be achieved. Indeed, since the announcement of the 2023 vision in Turkey, unemployment in Turkey has increased only dramatically. Recep Tayyib Erdogan`s statement on the eve of the centenary of the Turkish Republic is indicative of the fact that something revolutionary will happen after 2023. He said Turkey would shape the future of the entire region if it met its 2023 targets. Turkey has achieved new victories and successes, he added.